THE ONGOING RIVERS STATE LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION – MATTERS ARISING

Political leaders at the center of the Rivers State election crisis

The ongoing Local Government Council elections in Rivers State, conducted by the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission (RSIEC) this 30th August, 2025 is being held against a backdrop of unprecedented political crisis. This election is more than a routine democratic exercise; it is a critical flashpoint in the power struggle in Rivers State.

For a while now, Local Government Administration in Rivers State have been marred by series of short-lived administration mostly due to power struggles. However, it is the view of some Rivers people that the current election at the LGA level may bring in some stability at the grass root level and of course socio-economic development in our rural areas and also act as a booster in our dwindling rural economies which are mostly agrarian with little positive impact from the multi-national activities of the oil and gas industries littering our backyards.

Why is this election irrespective of all the challenges viewed as a socio-economic booster and also why the credibility challenges and what is going to be the most likely voter turn-out, apathy vs. enthusiasm!! First and foremost, the Hon. Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), HE. Nyesom Wike is the key leader in the current LGA election and of course his Successor, HE. Siminalaye Fubara and the administrator of Rivers State Ibok-Ete Ibas.

His Excellency Nyesom Wike (FCT Minister & Former Governor)

Wike is the central figure in the pro-election faction. As the political godfather of the current governor, he maintains significant control over the state's legislative arm and the structure of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in the state and further extends this political influence in the APC because he is a serving Minister and also a close associate of the President, Bola Tinubu so this is not strange. For Wike, this election is a strategic move to consolidate his political empire by installing loyalists at the grassroots level, the foundation of political control in Nigeria. A successful election with his preferred candidates now duly nominated and selected to contest the various positions is a win already.

His Excellency Siminalayi Fubara

Governor Fubara's position is constitutionally ambiguous. While he has been suspended by a presidential enactment including the House of Assembly, he remains the recognized Chief Executive of the state by the Nigerian Constitution. His role in this election is passive and oppositional. While he has not declared the election illegal, his constituted Local Government Election where he fielded candidates on the platform of APP was nullified to enable today's election to take place.

The LGA elections where his favorite and loyal candidates emerged was also labelled as a sham by the Wike led group and a s part of the agenda for peace between him and Wike, those who emerged on that platform were all dissolved to pave way for the current LGA election. Boycotting the election wouldn't have been a better tactic for a man fighting to return to the government house in September, so he simply caved in to the Wike's group.

Chief (Dr.) Ibok-Ete Ibas (State Administrator)

The appointment of a caretaker committee for the local governments by the pro-Wike assembly effectively suspended elected LG officials and created the office of the Administrator. The Administrator's role is to act on the directives of the assembly that appointed him, making him a key instrument in facilitating this election against the wishes of the sitting governor, his roles are equally non-visible, and however he appointed the Rivers State Electoral Commission Chairman in the person of Micheal Odey, a fellow Cross-Riverian.

His Excellency President Bola Ahmed Tinubu

President Tinubu's role has been that of a mediator, attempting to broker peace through an 8-point resolution earlier in the crisis. However, the implementation of that resolution is interpreted by many as lopsided and is widely seen as favoring Wike. The President's silence during this specific election period is interpreted as tacit approval for the process, aligning with the interests of his minister (Wike) and the national ruling party (APC), which hopes to gain footholds in the state.

RSIEC Chairman, Micheal Odey

The RSIEC, under Odey, is caught in the crossfire. The commission is proceeding with the election based on the directives of the Federal government and the Rivers State administrator. Critics argue that the RSIEC lacks the power as the state is under an emergency rule and is acting as an extension of the Wike faction, conducting an election without a level playing field or the buy-in of the state's chief security officer (Governor Fubara).

What are the socio-economic implication of all this?

• Deepening of Political Fault Lines: The election is not a unifying event but a divisive one. It solidifies the split within the state's PDP and deepens the political rift between the state government and the Federal government thereby creating a state of functional paralysis.
• Legitimacy Crisis: Any government officials elected from this process may face a severe legitimacy crisis. They will be seen as products of a political faction, not of the people's will, making it difficult for them to govern effectively or command respect.
• Precedent for Constitutional Anomaly: The election sets a dangerous precedent where the powers of the state assembly vis a vis the Federal government will be evaluated in a Federal state structure. However, if the governor, HE. Similanye Fubara decides to hold his loyalty to his predecessor HE. Nyesom Wike that will be a way to dilute any form of rebellion or questions about legitimacy.
• Increased Tension and Insecurity: The political climate is highly charged. The election could spark protests, violence, and a further breakdown of law and order, deterring investment and destabilizing daily life.

Opposition to the election is widespread and vocal:

• Governor Fubara's Camp: Has declared the process null, void, and illegal, but not the governor directly.
• Civil Society Organizations (CSOs): Have condemned the election, citing a lack of preparedness, inadequate voter education, and the obvious partisan influence of the Wike faction.
• The Main Opposition (APC & Labour Party in Rivers): While the national APC may benefit, local opposition parties have little chance in a non-inclusive process and have largely condemned it as a charade designed to handpick PDP (Wike faction) candidates.
• Public Intellectuals and Media: Editorial opinions and analyses have largely panned the election as a misadventure that prioritizes political vengeance over public good.

Socio-Economic Implications and Benefits to Peace & Development

The immediate socio-economic implications are overwhelmingly negative:

• Policy Paralysis: The ongoing crisis diverts all government attention and resources from governance to political survival. Critical issues like infrastructure, education, healthcare, and job creation are put on hold.
• Investor Confidence: The instability and perception of lawlessness scare away both local and foreign investors, worsening the state's economic woes and unemployment rate.
• Social Unrest: The potential for violence disrupts commerce and agriculture, affecting livelihoods.

It is highly unlikely that this election will bring peace or development. Instead, it is a catalyst for further conflict. True peace and development can only come from:

1. A resolution rooted in the Nigerian Constitution, clearly defining the powers of the governor and the assembly.
2. A truly independent electoral process conducted in an atmosphere of free and fair competition, not under duress.
3. Political compromise that puts the interests of Rivers people above individual ambitions.

Prediction of Voter Response

General Apathy is the most likely outcome. Voter turnout is predicted to be extremely low due to:

• Fear of Violence: Many citizens will choose to stay home to avoid potential outbreaks of violence at polling units.
• Lack of Faith in the Process: The widespread perception that the outcome has been pre-determined will discourage voters from participating, as they see no value in their vote.
• Boycott Calls: The influential call for a boycott by the sitting governor will be heeded by a significant portion of the populace.
• Political Fatigue: The citizens of Rivers State are likely exhausted by the prolonged political warfare and may disengage entirely from what they see as a pointless exercise.

Final Analysis

The focus now shifts to the judiciary. The legality of the election, the suspension of the governor, and the election itself may likely be challenged by hardened opposition in court. The final outcome of this crisis will ultimately be determined by judicial pronouncements, which will either validate the current process or declare it a constitutional breach, leading to a fresh wave of political realignments. Until then, Rivers State remains in a precarious state of limbo, with peace and development being the ultimate casualties.

Finally, a lot of persons have been questioning the unexplained absence of the suspended State Governor, Siminalaye Fubara's absence from all the process leading up to the election to actively voting in the election????